Just completed nine waves down, which is technically an impulse -- "under the Elliott system, a count of nine and a count of five have the same technical significance."
With an impulse up and an impulse down, I usually lean toward the larger trend, in this case: up.
See below, however . . .
News:
If ever Greece and the EU needed a rabbit, it is this week. As suspected, capital flight is outrunning the ability of politicians to "fix" things. People are voting at the ATMs. Look for the ATMs to be turned off.
As a result, Europe is down hard today.
Fed begins a two-day meeting with an announcement on Wednesday.
One more thing regarding Europe: Bloomberg reported that "the European Union Court of Justice will deliver a verdict Tuesday on the legality of a plan Draghi announced three years ago, when surging bond yields in stressed economies threatened to split the currency bloc."
This could either be a non-event, or a sleeper -- meaning an under-the-radar catalyst at the worst possible time.
FX:
CHF on the move today, weaker.
Treasuries:
Try as they may, these still look weird.
Energy:
WTI crude below 60, so far on light volume, however. NG has a variety of options open to it. No clear edge.
Metals:
Gold continues its submarine adventure.
S&P Outlook:
2088.52 is the 61.8% Fibonacci support level of the rally from the June 9th lows. Failure to hold there, such as a further decline in sympathy with Europe, could open a 1:1 decline to 2052.44.
As a bear, would much prefer to see 2072.14 hold and a reversal to new highs to follow. There is also a volume shelf at the 2080 area which could come into play.
Meanwhile, there's more friendly advice from the financial press. If the market breaks down hard from current levels, it will probably be the most widely publicized correction ever.
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