The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Tuesday -- The Million Dollar Burger, Speakeasy Saturation & What Is It About July Op-Ex?

ES Futures:
Miraculous comeback from overnight doom. Or is it just the new moon in conjunction with front running before a two-day Fed meeting?

Same ol' same ol' Greek drama. Shanghai down 3.5%.

New moon 9:07 am NY time. Two-day Fed meeting starts today.

Quiet. Good. More proclamations that the dollar is done. Gooder.

Could be wrong, but prices look vulnerable after a low volume rally.

No clear edge in either WTI crude or NG at the moment. Half-wondering if NG is forming a larger triangle before a final leg down.


S&P Outlook:
Seeing more and more wave counts showing that a top is in, adding to my conviction that it may not be.

For one thing, if indeed an ending diagonal was completed, the market is not acting like it.

Page 38 of the Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter notes that an ending diagonal is "usually followed by a sharp decline at least back to the level where it began and typically much further."

That's 1800 for starters. The S&P hasn't even broken a swing point yet.

Instead, we may be building the "surprising disappointment" of a smaller wave four before a final burst of euphoria in wave five.

Interestingly, the oscillation of the pattern thus far may point to a top near July op-ex.

What is it about the period after July op-ex that marks interim tops?

1998 was the Asian Flu. 1999 was Y2K fears. This time could be Greece.

Or maybe it's just vacation.

Social Mood:
When would you expect to see a million dollar burger, near a market high or low?

Actually, it's a $24 burger and you have to assemble it yourself.

Could it have anything to do with this chart?

Also noting a saturation of password-protected, Prohibition Era speakeasy bars -- a trend which has been growing for some time.

Take note. Prohibition in the USA was from 1920-1933, a very interesting time in the markets.

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