The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, June 8, 2015

Monday -- O & The Dollar, Tiger & The Worst Round Ever

ES Futures:
Flat to slightly down.

Here's some.

According to Reuters, "a senior U.S. official denied on Monday a news wire report that President Barack Obama had told a Group of Seven industrial nations' summit that the strong dollar was a problem.

"Bloomberg News earlier quoted a French official as saying Obama had made the comment.

"The President did not state that the strong dollar was a problem," the U.S. official said."

Quiet. And that's good.

Still looking shaky.

56.51 held in WTI crude. There was a bounce, and I had calls, but like the S&P, the bounce did not impress and I bailed early. Only then did it impress.

Gold sub-1200.

S&P Outlook:
Noticed an interesting occurrence on two weekly charts with entirely different trend lines. Hoping this doesn't mark an important top such as the larger third wave high I've been looking for (unfinished UVXY position).

Was looking for more of a bounce Friday for the SPY calls to get pumped, but dumped them as the premium began leaking (was saved by a small gain in WTI crude calls).

Anything down to 2067.93 is still fair game, and if the above charts are significant, any break of 67.93 might be cause to get more aggressive to the downside.

If 2085.67 did mark the low (missing the May 12th swing point by 10 ticks), price should rip higher sooner rather than later. 2115 area has Fib and volume.

One other thing, there is a Bradley Turn Date tomorrow, June 9th, that is equal in magnitude to the one from December 26th, 2014 that coincided with wave 1 of the rising wedge. Thinking tomorrow might coincide with a low before a final run to a new all-time high (best case).

Social Mood:
Tiger Woods just shot the worst round of his career. Take note. This is a sign that the mood underpinning the market may be fading.

For some socionomic perspective, see Tiger Woods – A Case Study in Social Prediction Using Socionomics.

Also, see Kevin Armstrong's excellent Bulls, Golden Bears and Tiger.

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