The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Tuesday -- Sympathy For The Bears

ES Futures:
Mr Toad's Wild Ride overnight, but notably recovered from a 10 point down spike.

In the past 24 hours . . .

I even heard that former senator Ron Paul is running TV ads in the Midwest about an imminent market collapse.

To be fair, they could all be right. I just can't remember a bell being rung at a top.

Elsewhere, HSBC will fire 50,000 people. The recovery is so good that even banks can't make money.

EUR relative strength, USD opposite. JPY should be watched carefully. USDJPY got much stronger yesterday (and NIKKEI broke down from a tight range).

Still look weird. Dumped TLT yesterday as pattern morphed into a potential bearish configuration.

WTI crude ripping. Bot USO calls and will dump most on the open. CL calls were way too rich.

NG bounce mode.

Gold rallying but still relatively nowhere.

S&P Outlook:
The Stones had sympathy for the devil. I have sympathy for the bears.

I've been one for a long time.

I dislike this market just as much as any bear, but I am just not seeing it. Internals are not bearish enough on this decline so far.

That can change. Unless it means that markets that go up on Zombified internals can come down on Zombified internals, I still must look for a reversal.

There is multi-day positive tick and A/D divergence. The VIX failed to break out (this could also signal complacency though). Volume was quite muted yesterday on the way down. Every decline since 2009 has had an exceedingly bearish signature. Not this one yet.

The most significant red flag are the waves themselves. It's too hard to count a clear impulse down in the S&P cash. It's even harder in the futures. The only market that scares me (besides the Dow Transports) is the OEX. But it hasn't broken anything yet.

The way the market is trading, it feels like there's bad news underneath that is not well known yet, but is known by just enough so that the usual buying (algo or otherwise) is not there.

Regardless, with futures testing -- and rejecting -- the 2068.75 level, the market may have shown its hand last night.

The real test may be today and the 2067.93. Or a bounce that comes out of nowhere and tests the 2115 area. Sounds crazy. But there's a gap there -- at 2114.07.

There is a Fib extension target at 2076.78 that interests me.

It's a Bradley Turn Date today.

And it's Tuesday.

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