The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Thursday -- The Day After

ES Futures:
Reversed an overnight decline, modestly higher.

Sometimes its the day after a Fed meeting that things become clearer.

Yellen is fast becoming a master of saying something for everyone -- the economy is stronger, the economy is weaker, we're moving soon on rates, we're not moving soon, we're going to raise them twice, but really not at all.

Merkel will try to save the EU at all costs, and is suddenly floating dove balloons.

Rough night in China.

USD smacked. EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP, AUD, even MXN, all stronger today.

Wild ride post-Fed. Charts still look weird, but volume entered the picture in a big way as prices reacted to Yellen's rate-rise comments by saying, "we don't believe you." This was reflected in FX, energy, and metals as well.

Yellen even tossed out a comment about how there is still persistent weakness left over from the financial crisis.

CNBC asked "what are they so worried about?"

Once again, they're worried about this chart.

Source: St Louis FRED economic data
Notice that since Greenspan freaked in response to the 1987 crash, money velocity has failed to increase even with repeated injections. This disinflationary trend points toward outright deflation, something the Fed fears more than losing its charter.

Wild ride in WTI crude -- up, down, up, down, up. NG down.

Gold well bid, knocking on 1200. 1232 next hurdle.

S&P Outlook:
Said on Stocktwits yesterday that 2094.61 is the stop, yet this will be irrelevant with a new rally high. Note however that futures got below that equivalent level and recovered.

The S&P failed to close above the 50dma (currently 2104.40) but could go after it with renewed vigor today.

There is a gap at 2108.86 and a volume shelf at 2110 that could cap a rally, but it would be seen as bullish if price could get above it and hold.

Likewise, there is still ample opportunity for price to test the 2072.14 lows.

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