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Thursday, June 25, 2015

Thursday -- Of VIX, Fibs & Levels To Consider

ES Futures:
Coming off an overnight pop higher.

More Greek drama.

The VIX rose 8% yesterday to close well inside its lower 2 standard deviation band thus providing a sell signal. It is possible that there could be a few of these before the market turns.

Quiet but for CHF weakness and modest AUD strength.

Eyes on 10s which seem to have eyes on the 125'055 swing point from June 17th.

WTI crude and NG largely the same as yesterday.

Gold 1173s.

S&P Outlook:
The VIX sell signal has occurred amid a choppy pullback. The market got below the 2110 level and basically tested two separate 38% Fib retracement areas (exact numbers are 2105.962107.82). Futures have rallied overnight, but the cash index could still surprise.

Therefore, 2100 and 2085 are still possible, but so is a reversal from current levels. My own preference would be a test lower with 2088.86 holding. (2091.20 is also a 61.8% Fib target related to the 05.96 cited above.)

Potential also remains for a larger ABC down to 2067.29 which would just undercut the earlier 2067.93 swing point by a few ticks and likely trigger a tremendous number of stop orders. Something to consider.

Something else to consider: from a Fib extension & Elliott standpoint, the way the wedge is currently labeled, a 5th-wave rally could extend as high as 2,225.95.

While not expected, it could happen.

If it did, during such time one could expect the roar of the bulls to become deafening, with at least one call for 3,000 on the S&P.

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