The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Tuesday -- FX Deal Tells, Treasuries, Rally Fatigue

ES Futures:
Holding modest gains -- again.

Markets seem to think a Greek deal is imminent. Tspiras' career may be over in the process. He'll likely go down as just another politician who came to power on promises he didn't keep.

Herein lie the biggest Greek tells, in my opinion. CHF is much weaker on lack of a safe haven bid. EUR is weaker on hopes of a deal (which will cost more in the end), and USD is notably stronger because an end to the Greek drama puts the focus back on rising rates.

Swing points have been broken in 5s and 30s. Yields are rising across the curve. Charts are messy.

WTI crude back under 60. NG is in no man's land with equal swing points above and below to shoot for.

Gold 1179s.

S&P Outlook:
The Greek deal is obviously much more important for Europe, but yesterday showed that something is not good under the USA's hood.

Yesterday's performance in Euro Zone:

Yesterday's performance here:

Price action simply left a lot to be desired. Whether the market just completed "A" of an "ABC" up remains to be seen, but if it did, the market could retrace a healthy portion of the rally from 2072.14. Few would be prepared for it, it seems.

There is volume support at the 2100 area and the 2085 area. The 85 area lines up with a 78.6% retracement from yesterday's highs.

Higher targets remain equally valid. But this market acted tired yesterday and it showed.

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