The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, June 22, 2015

Monday -- Optimism Reigns (& The Waves Do, Too)

ES Futures:
Opened sharply higher last night on Globex and haven't looked back.

Today is less about news and more about optimism ...and wave counts.

The news is on the social mood front.

The problem is that, according to socionomics, both Tiger Woods and golf itself are bull market phenomena.

Simply put, a fading bull market star in a bull market sport does not bode well for a bull market.

Also note the accidental forecast in the first headline above -- astonishing free-fall. Remember that in a month or two.

To bring it into sharper focus, see John Hussman's latest missive in which he stressed that the market's vulnerability is "not simply extreme valuation, but the fact that extreme valuation is now joined with deteriorating market internals and widening credit spreads."

This is what it looks like in IG CDX-Land as equity prices head higher -- credit derivatives are heading higher, too. Just like in 2007. (many thank to Fil Zucchi, a must-follow @FZucchi)

Source: @FZucchi

Quiet, waiting for facts to emerge.

Not impressed with equity's surge thus far, which could be a bad sign later.

WTI crude flirting with 60 again. NG flirting with itself.

Gold did well last week on fears of a Greek apocalypse. Now 1191.

S&P Outlook:
Am still looking for a peak sometime around July option expiration.

Just learned that Peter Eliades, one of the great ones, is calling for one in the same time frame using a 30+ year cycle and a 150 month cycle that pinpoint the current time frame into August. Spooky.

Today's move in the futures (and likely in the cash index) comes at the right time & place from a wave perspective. Keeping above 2088.86 is key moving forward.

For now, higher targets are the 2150 area up to the 2168s.

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