The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Wednesday -- Wave Counts, More Help From The Press

ES Futures:
Rally mode, but appears to be a bounce.

Today there's this . . .

Have never seen so many "helpful reminders" before.

The latest Bloomberg survey noted that "economists see almost a 40% chance that the Fed will delay a rate increase beyond September if jobs gains stumble or inflation fails to move higher."

. . . so it appears the next Fed jawbone is in the works.

JPY getting stronger, especially after comments by BOJ's Kuroda that it was unlikely to weaken further. Strong JPY is not a good signal in today's markets (Risk Off), and JPY was notably stronger days before Kuroda's comments.

EUR and USD showing weakness this morning. GBP and AUD showing strength.

2s-30s have confirmed the weirdness noted here for the past several days. Prices have broken their near-term lows. Today should see if volume increases or not. Will try TLT (or ZN futures) calls again if not.

German bunds acting spooky too.

Noting that all this bond weirdness -- which is a sign of stress -- is being treated with a benign "reflation" narrative in the press. Wishful thinking.

Oops. Exited USO calls in two tranches and felt pretty good about it -- until the API figures came out late in the day and pumped WTI crude even further. It remains higher ahead to today's EIA figures.

NG still ripping higher, on volume. 3.105 may be the target.

Gold rallying -- 1186.

S&P Outlook:
IF 2067.93 breaks, it is possible that the wave count was wrong. But I must admit that, even now, it appears as if the rising wedge may have been broken.

If the wedge has been broken, yes, 1800 is likely the minimum target in a larger wave 4, unless the market forms a high-level triangle, which I would view as less likely based on the plethora of triangles since 2009.

Wedges usually break down sharply (another reason why I still have my doubts about this decline). With the futures market bouncing today, it will be interesting (and informative) to see how high it can get before possibly retesting the lows. The lift-off from yesterday's lows is not impressive wave-wise yet.

But still, the day was encouraging simply because of its Bradley Turn Date status -- it seemed the market reacted to it at least a little bit.

I still like the 2095 area and the 2115 area with the gap at 2114.07. Reaching these levels without first making new lows could do serious damage to the bear case for now. The far more telling level would be 2121.92.

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