The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, July 20, 2015

Monday -- Things Look Great . . .

ES Futures:
Drifty yet higher.

Gold dumps and there are a million dark "reasons" for it except for this one: technical analysis. The chart has telegraphed the potential for lower lows for months.

Here's where we left off on Friday:

And loved this one:
Source: Stocktwits sentiment reading
Meanwhile the Russell looks like it's forming a large head & shoulders pattern on the daily chart.

Things look great, yet the IMF continues to throw cold water on the European project, and now says that Portuguese debt is unsustainable.

This as investors have pushed 10-year Portuguese bonds to just 186 basis points over German Bunds, as noted recently by Sinclair & Co. This compares to Greece at 1043 basis points and the US at 155 basis points.

Greece is not fixed. It's just first.

Quiet but for GBP crosses.

Continue to look stressed.

WTI crude & NG still pressured.

Gold cracked its 1130 low yet silver did not. Watch this. Not thinking the move in gold is over yet, but that it's a buy soon, eventually below its overnight lows of 1080.

S&P Outlook:
The S&P is another market that I don't think has seen its final move. 2129.87 still waits. As does 2134.72 and possible a test of 2150.

Lower is still possible from current levels even though things look and sound "great." Anything down to 1980.90 is game, technically,

At this point though, a pullback into 2095 might look best before a final up leg to 2150.

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