The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Tuesday -- No Really, Things Look Great

ES Futures:
Still hanging at highs, though weakening.

IBM seems to have, once again, required financial engineering (GAAP bullshit and buybacks) to "beat" its EPS numbers -- $3.84 vs 3.79 expected -- only to miss on revenues.

This, to me, is the market in a nutshell.

Meanwhile, Ryan Detrick, CMT, noted that "NASDAQ made new all-time high yet had more new lows than new highs. Only other time that has ever happened was April '99."

You know, that's right about where we could be in the market: 1999. See below.

Quiet again, but for CHF and EUR.

Both are stronger which might mean EU issues about to resurface. Possible CHF safe haven bid, EUR "stronger without Greece" bid.

These are some of the most highly liquid and most respected debt securities on the planet and they're trading, literally, like junk.

WTI crude not looking too clever at the moment, but could be setting up for a bounce. NG appears to have needed more rest for 2.955.

Weak bounce thus far for gold & silver.

S&P Outlook:
Some days are best for Timestamping instead of trading, and yesterday was one of them. I cut 'n' pasted some real whoppers from bulls on parade.

Meanwhile the S&P missed its all-time high by 1.9 points and closed with negative 2:1 A/Ds -- twice as many stocks down as up.

Concurrently, "all-US 52-week high-low difference" closed -249, something it usually only achieves on vicious down days.

Getting back to 1999 mentioned above, I think we have some hiccups ahead before the real parties begin.

Notice the 3-wave rally into the March 2000 top. We've been having 3-wave rallies since the October 2014 lows -- the classic tell-tale of an ending wedge formation. Keyword: ending.

Still thinking at some point we have a correction into the October lows (~1800) then a ripping rally to 2300-2500. Then straight back to 1800, a bounce, and then much lower.

In other words, back to a traders' market.

Meanwhile, there is a small Fib target above at 2139.08 and still 2150. Looking to sell most of SPXL at any new high above 2134.72 and will hold a little for higher if it should occur.

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