The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Thursday -- Both S&P Scenarios Continue

ES Futures:
Firmly higher after yesterday's strong recovery.

Eurogroup agrees to €7 billion bridge loan for Greece to repay Troika. Circular logic prevails.

Jobless claims 281,000 -- a little better than expected, in line with what Yellen is looking for.

Draghi held rates steady at ECB meeting.

EUR, GBP, CHF all weaker.

Fading after unconvincing two-day rally.

WTI crude fizzle zone. NG still looking for 2.955.

Gold & silver continue their respective submarine races.

S&P Outlook:
At best yesterday's new moon slowed the ascent. A/Ds were negative all day, yet the afternoon swoon was met with strong buying.

Today is a Bradley Turn Date. 2115.31 is the 78.6% retracement of the 2044.02 decline and should get hit today.

Both the "wave five in progress" and "complex ABC" scenario are still on the table.

Assuming 2044.02 marked the lows, confluence remains at the 2150 area and 2197.84 is the maximum projection in wave five assuming an ending diagonal.

If wave five is in progress, expect to hear wildly bullish chatter and at least one call for a 3,000 S&P.

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