The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Wednesday -- Lots Going On Today

ES Futures:
Firm. New rally spike highs overnight could provide overhead resistance today at ES 2107.50.

Greece continues to unravel.

China down 3%.

PPI 8:30am Eastern. Hotter than expected.

Yellen testimony at 10am. Prepared comments sticking to her script -- on track for rate rise this year.

EIA at 10:30.

Beige Book 2pm.

New moon 4:26pm.

That's a pretty full day.

Quiet, yet CHF weaker.

Half-hearted attempt at a rally before Yellen's testimony which then fizzled.

WTI crude flat. NG possibly gaming 2.955 swing point.

Gold & silver flat to down.

S&P Outlook:
I was appalled yesterday when the S&P finally filled the 2101.49 gap with inverted A/Ds and positive ticks of just 50. Not a typo. Actually, the true number at the moment of the fill was 11, but by the time I actually tweeted it, it had hit 50. It should have been at least 800.

Regardless, the S&P did what it had to do: it closed above the gap and the 2104 volume shelf. It now becomes extremely difficult to count a top in May.

True, there is still the possibility of a head fake to new lows (per yesterday's chart), but it would likely still be corrective and thus another buying opportunity, hopefully without another NYSE "trading glitch" obfuscatory side show.

The preferred count suggests new highs over the next few weeks, then a larger wave four correction.

Here are updated charts, preferred and alternate. The alternate count argues that the smaller wave four is not established yet.

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