The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, July 2, 2015

Thursday -- "Yes" Means "Go"

ES Futures:
Hanging at highs, appears to be building a bullish rising wedge for the third day.

Tsipras & Varoufakis promise to resign if Greece votes "yes" on the referendum. With polls tilting "yes" so far, the game theorists may have blinked for the last time.

Sweden's Riksbank unexpectedly cut interest rates 10bps further to -0.35%. Not a typo.

China relaxed rules on using borrowed money to speculate on stock markets, Reuters reported. Still down another 3.5%.

June jobs number: 223,000 vs. 225,000 expected. Downward revisions to April & May. Fed watchers may see this as fodder for postponing rate hikes.

AUD under pressure. EUR slightly stronger.

Prices are higher on the jobs number, but the charts still look rather suspect.

WTI crude did not hold 57.94, cratered on a build in inventories, and closed below 23.6% Fib resistance.

Gold 1159s.

S&P Outlook:
Lower targets still remain (2040-2050 area), yet with futures holding strong ahead of the long weekend perhaps the higher targets are gaining focus. The S&P built value at the 2075 level and closed above it after successfully testing Tuesday's value area.

The 2101.49 gap and 2104 volume shelf remain viable targets.

Fib 38/61.8% confluence is from 2086.11-2086.47.

Still feels like the market is not expecting higher prices.

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