The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Wednesday -- Rumors & Late Shorts

ES Futures:
Have now retraced over 78.6% of Monday's decline. Rumors of compromise abound . . .

News:
Financial markets buzzing over an FT story citing a leaked letter that Greek prime minister Tsipras is prepared to accept bailout conditions. This should be treated as rumor and realize that all gains could be erased at some point. However, it's a welcome sign.

Europe is green with optimism. Asia ex-China had a good night as well. China down 5.3% after yesterday's ripfest.

FX:
USD strong today, safe haven flows coming out of CHF again.

Treasuries:
Still not confident of the rally. Prices coming in and yields higher across the curve.

Energy:
If WTI crude wants to rally, it should do so now, and hold above 57.94.

Metals:
Gold 1169s.

S&P Outlook:
With futures retracing 78.6% of Monday's decline, pressure is building on late shorts.

The S&P built volume yesterday at about the 2063.50 level. The next volume level of note is 2104 just above the 2101.49 gap.

Pressure is building on bearish wave counts, too.

It's possible that an ABC down is forming from 2129.87. "A" could be 2056.32. "B" could be put in over the next few days and could reach as high as the gap and volume shelf above. "C" could target the 2028 area, but would be dependent on where "B" ends. This area could mark the end of the correction, if it hasn't already ended.

Pre-holiday bullish bias and compromise optimism could ignite violent short covering. If rally builds more slowly, perhaps there is more to it. Something to watch.

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