The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Wednesday -- Are Things So Great They Can't Get Any Better?

ES Futures:
New pre-market lows after weakness overnight following weak outlooks by Apple, Microsoft, Chipotle, and other others.

Companies need sales and revenues instead of creative accounting.

Apple is fast becoming a one-trick pony overly dependent on a single device which is seeing erosion.

Chipotle reported good numbers, but same store sales pressure. Down 67 points (panic) then up 80+ points (manic).

Even Biogen is down 4% this morning. Huh, a biotech down?

Maybe things are so great they can't get any better.

Soon, W.D. Hamilton’s "selfish herd theory" may kick in, causing something he called escape panic in which:

- Individuals attempt to move faster than normal

- Interactions between individuals become physical

- Exits become arched and clogged

- Escape is slowed by fallen individuals serving as obstacles

- Individuals display a tendency towards mass or copied behavior

- Alternative or less used exits are overlooked

With higher targets still valid, a "panic" could cause a frothy blow-off top. But, like Chipotle showed, psychology can turn quickly.

GBP on the move in anticipation of a rate rise. USDMXN new highs. Cervezas on sale.

Had a good day after I called them junk. Still look like junk.

WTI crude did not rally and looks vulnerable. NG still has not reached 2.955.

Gold & silver falling under their own weight.

S&P Outlook:
Volume shelves at 2010, 2096, and 2077 area.

2077 looks intriguing because it lines up with a deep 61.8% Fib retracement which would freak everyone out.

Yesterday started to freak people out (wild intraday TRIN) and the market was hardly down at all. Psychology feels on a knife edge.

Though I rarely use them -- and probably should much more -- Fibonacci Time Lines mark Monday, July 27th, as 61.8% of wave 3. Ugh, the first workday of my vacation.

It means -- possibly -- that a top for the ending diagonal pattern could occur that day which would make wave 5 61.8% as long in time as wave 3 was. A larger wave 3 top could occur there and could be followed by a larger wave 4 to 1800. Escape panic would ensue.

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