The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, August 24, 2015

Monday -- Bull, Interrupted

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down in washout mode. Cracked the 1900 level.

No RRR cut from China last night. Further carnage throughout Asia, Europe, and USA so far.

Notice that it was also China's yuan devaluation that's been given credit for the crash catalyst -- perfect foil for the Fed to hide behind and not get blamed.

Yet their monetary experiments are behind the whole mess.

Meanwhile, there are rumblings of another rate hike postponement & rumors of more QE.

One thing is for certain, even with futures down 100 points: now is not the time to panic.

Watch the yen, It's getting stronger in a wicked way which denotes stress. Yet USDJPY may only be an ABC flat pattern if it holds. This has me watching for new highs in the pair and elsewhere.

2s & 5s stalling while 10s & 30s rip. Looking more and more like inversion.

WTI crude cracked 40. Maybe a couple more subdivisions in the pattern, but looking closer to a buy level. NG still nowhere.

Gold does appear to be forming an impulsive move from the 1072 lows. Silver looks more sloppy.

S&P Outlook:
So the "poof" dude was right . . . on Friday, at least. And the action is starting to feel suspiciously like a kick off to a major trend reversal. But this is still a market that can surprise in more ways than just down.

Rather than get too deep in overt speculation now, suffice it to say that Friday was a 4 standard deviation volatility move, and that this morning UVXY and TVIX were both up over 40% overnight. That's an extreme move on an extreme move.

With futures trying to find a bid -- and they very well should soon even under the darkest scenarios -- the worst may have occurred. Or maybe the worst will be a straight line move into the 1800's on the cash S&P.

Perhaps Danny is a metaphor. It has weakened from a Category 3 hurricane with 115 MPH winds to a Tropical Storm with 40 MPH winds.

I still find the beginning waves of this decline less than impressive when trying to support THE TOP of the market, which is why I alluded to being in an A of an ABC down on Stocktwits on Friday.

But 1800 could still get tested no problem. It's there that the market will likely make its next big decision.

This could also be one version, but nothing I'm using yet. Just something I'm trying to factor into the odds. Perhaps this is simply the interruption -- or Reboot -- that September Vogue 2014 alerted us to almost exactly a year ago.

The 5th installment of The Socionomic Implications Of September Vogue will be ready as soon as possible after I receive it. Had to order it from Amazon this year and got rush service on it. With any luck I should get it tomorrow during Danny's downpours.

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