Currently 10 points off the overnight lows.
News:
Back from vacation and into the fire.
First, my internet was down when I got back. I had turned off the modem and the server lost track of it. No technician available until August 24th. No problem -- my awesome neighbor gave me his wireless password. "Don't worry, bro! I got 1 gig down. I can power the whole building!"
It's fast.
My car (due to arrive . . . August 24th) is somewhere between Jacksonville, Florida and San Juan, Puerto Rico -- headed into a strengthening hurricane.
A hurricane that is heading toward me.
Oh, and it's August op-ex.
. . . What Is It About July Op-Ex?
Remember the cocky timestamp from July 20th?
Found this yesterday from a guy who has cried wolf at every major low since 2012 or so.
The S&P could be in a heap of trouble, but it has yet to retrace even 38% of the move from the October 2014 lows.
FX:
Watching strength in JPY, concurrent with equity weakness. Cautionary.
Treasuries:
Yields lower, prices higher, yet charts still look dubious.
Energy:
WTI crude still weak. NG still nowhere'sville since May.
Metals:
Gold has caught a bid over the last several weeks. Silver doesn't look as clever.
S&P Outlook:
Two major swing points were broken yesterday -- 2044.02 & 2039.69.
The Dow and the NY Composite look to have failed.
The Dow broke the equivalent of 1980.90 on the S&P cash.
Bad.
However, VIX term structure may suggest an interim low between now and maybe +/- 5 days.
In other words, I'm not shorting here.
If anything, I'll buy weekly calls to partially hedge UVXY and TVIX.
As for the S&P, it could be making a smaller wave four low in the next few days, or it may have made a larger wave 3 top.
Please note, I have never seen an Elliott wave truncation in real-time, and do not know of any valid ones since the 1982 low. I usually doubt any wave count that suggests one, but based on the way the Dow has broken down, one may have occurred.
News:
Back from vacation and into the fire.
First, my internet was down when I got back. I had turned off the modem and the server lost track of it. No technician available until August 24th. No problem -- my awesome neighbor gave me his wireless password. "Don't worry, bro! I got 1 gig down. I can power the whole building!"
It's fast.
My car (due to arrive . . . August 24th) is somewhere between Jacksonville, Florida and San Juan, Puerto Rico -- headed into a strengthening hurricane.
A hurricane that is heading toward me.
Oh, and it's August op-ex.
. . . What Is It About July Op-Ex?
Remember the cocky timestamp from July 20th?
Found this yesterday from a guy who has cried wolf at every major low since 2012 or so.
The S&P could be in a heap of trouble, but it has yet to retrace even 38% of the move from the October 2014 lows.
FX:
Watching strength in JPY, concurrent with equity weakness. Cautionary.
Treasuries:
Yields lower, prices higher, yet charts still look dubious.
Energy:
WTI crude still weak. NG still nowhere'sville since May.
Metals:
Gold has caught a bid over the last several weeks. Silver doesn't look as clever.
S&P Outlook:
Two major swing points were broken yesterday -- 2044.02 & 2039.69.
The Dow and the NY Composite look to have failed.
The Dow broke the equivalent of 1980.90 on the S&P cash.
Bad.
However, VIX term structure may suggest an interim low between now and maybe +/- 5 days.
In other words, I'm not shorting here.
If anything, I'll buy weekly calls to partially hedge UVXY and TVIX.
As for the S&P, it could be making a smaller wave four low in the next few days, or it may have made a larger wave 3 top.
Please note, I have never seen an Elliott wave truncation in real-time, and do not know of any valid ones since the 1982 low. I usually doubt any wave count that suggests one, but based on the way the Dow has broken down, one may have occurred.
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