The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, September 28, 2015

Monday -- Glencore, Saudi & AAII Optimism

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down. Sloppy up, sloppy down. Messy.

News:
Commodity company Glencore down over 17% on global demand worries, chiefly from China. This is sending ripples through FX and commodity futures.

The timing of this headline probably isn't helping, either:


"Saudi Arabia has withdrawn as much as $70 billion from global asset managers as OPEC’s largest oil producer seeks to plug its budget deficit, according to financial services market intelligence company Insight Discovery."

And then there's this whopper over at Forbes:


Actually, it tied a bearish reading -- which could be bullish.

"Optimism is below its historical average of 39.0% for a 29th week in a row in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, tying a 22-year record. ..."The only other time bullish sentiment remained below 39.0% for this length of time was April 2 through October 15, 1993."

Somehow these things feel like old news, however.

FX:
US slightly stronger. JPY as well. EUR weaker. AUD & CAD hit.

Treasuries:
These may -- MAY -- be trying to head for their most recent swing highs, which would mean lower rates soon.

Energy:
WTI crude down hard yet still in its most recent range. NG gapping up over 2%.

Metals:
Gold and silver down in sympathy with commodity company Glencore' s stock getting hammered. Silver taking the worst of it, down over 2%.

Copper getting hammered too, heading for its recent lows.

S&P Outlook:
I'm going to stick with last Friday's scenario until it gets proven wrong.


Given the muted optimism, as well as the plethora of bearish wave counts I'm finding, my feeling is that the market has grinded lower since May -- the obvious exception being August.

Lest anyone think I'm suddenly a Permabull, I simply feel that the August decline wasn't deep enough in relation to the price action from May to the July 20th high.

Yes, the action since July 20th is impulsive looking, but still needs a fifth wave decline to complete the pattern. And until such time, other things may happen.

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