The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Tuesday -- Glen, RBI, EOQ, BI, 52.89

S&P E-mini Futures:
Up on an overnight reversal.

News:
An Asia bloodbath followed ours, yet Europe is green. Glencore's reversal higher may have sent the all-clear signal.

The big surprise was India -- its central bank, the RBI, cut rates by 50bps to 6.75%, a move predicted by virtually no one.

Long term, my money is on India, not China. China may see scary news highs eventually, but will probably blow up from internal strife.

And WTF. Zero Hedge reported that "German media conglomerate Axel Springer announced it has agreed to buy 88% of web-only Business Insider, adding to the 9% it already owns, for $343 million, which according to the Springer press release values 100% of the content aggregator at $442 million."

FX:
Quiet. USD up slightly, EUR down.

Treasuries:
Thought yesterday would have been much better, but prices struggled. Today they don't look much better, even though they've cleared what they couldn't seem to yesterday. The August swing points may have to wait a while.

Energy:
WTI crude up, yet remains in a tight range. NG down, remaining in an even longer range.

Metals:
Gold down, silver and copper up slightly. Copper so far has avoided new lows.

S&P Outlook:
We are in the EOQ markup window (along with a rare Supermoon and Sunday's total lunar eclipse window) and it looks like EOQ could be starting right on schedule after yesterday's full moon rout.

After yesterday, to see the futures up over 10 handles is surprising, especially since the market showed positive divergence all day yet ignored it. It was ugly.

There is a clear impulsive-looking wave down in the futures that needs above 1905.25 to break.

On the cash, the 1950 area sticks out and may make a great target if things get going.

Viewing the 9/22 minor swing point on the VIX -- 26.29 -- as a near-term benchmark. Noted yesterday that a close above it would likely mean "wait and see." A close below it today could signal that the bounce scenario may acquire higher odds.

Currently, if 1952.89 is exceeded without further new lows, the market could move a lot higher, and quickly.


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