The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, October 30, 2015

Friday -- Time, Price & Trend in SPX and Yen

S&P E-mini Futures:
An overnight ramp has largely weakened but is holding at highs.

News:
The BOJ did not expand its QE program last night, even when confronted with an onslaught of bad economic data showing the near complete failure of Abenomics.

Most glaringly, after 20+ years of deflation, prices are still falling. Headline inflation slowed to 0.0%, the lowest level now since May 2013.

Household Spending -1.3% month-over-month and -0.4% year-over-year.
National CPI 0.0% year-over-year.
National Core CPI -0.1% year-over-year.

However, all is not lost. Because when free money is available, it shows up in real estate, baby -- same as anywhere, so there were bright spots.

Housing Starts +2.6% year-over-year.
Construction Orders +6.7% year-over-year.

This chart is not a bright spot.


Yet because prices have come so far so fast, they're supposed to accelerate . . . now.


FX:
Given the above, it's no surprise the yen was stronger last night.

EUR is too, along with AUD & CAD (slightly), while USD is lower.

Treasuries:
Even with the budget deal, treasuries are not happy, and volume has accelerated as prices have fallen. So another warning.

Energy:
WTI crude bouncing and NG fading from its bounce.

Metals:
Gold, silver, and copper down slightly at this time.

S&P Outlook:
Here's what looks most probable at the moment given the action in JPY, treasuries, and SPX time, price & trend using Elliott wave & Fibonacci time extension.

There is still a gap or two to be aware of, the closest being 2096.92. The S&P closed with inverted A/Ds and weak ticks yesterday, never a good sign. So if price continues higher, it's likely on borrowed time unless simple things like ticks and A/Ds improve.


Bigger picture, still looking for a larger wave 4 low then a 1998/1999-style rip higher into ~2300.

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