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Thursday, October 29, 2015

Thursday -- Credit Listening, Equity Not As Much

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down but in choppy fashion.

Asia slightly mixed last night, Europe all red. Down hard.

The Fed didn't take the market by surprise, but delivered a hawkish tone that was heard loud & clear in credit land but not in equity land.

The next big news item will likely be the BOJ rate decision tomorrow at 10am NY time. The BOJ is not expected to provide more stimulus at this time, and is not expected to signal any either.

CHF and JPY stronger, which should be watched. Commodity currencies AUD & CAD weaker.

EUR higher, USD lower, contrary to credit market action.

Yesterday the Fed got credit's attention. The action was in the short end -- yields shot higher on the short end and barely budged on the long end. If it continues, the curve heads toward inversion.

WTI crude digesting yesterday's gains, with NG sustaining its bounce.

Not happy. Gold, silver, and copper getting hit.

S&P Outlook:
Was looking for yesterday to clear up the wave count. If anything it was a nod to the bullish interpretation, yet things look a little weird under the hood. It looks like a small wedge is building.

On the daily chart, it still appears as if the impulsive count is on track. Yet on the 15-minute chart, a few more subdivisions may be needed before a small wave-4 pullback.

The market closed above the 78.6% level and again respected the 200dma. The next gap higher is 2096.92.

Anything below 2063.11 would immediately call the above into question. Below 2039.12 would bring the B-wave back front and center.

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