The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Thursday -- Fading Follow Through

S&P E-mini Futures:
Good overnight follow through after yesterday's rally, yet currently fading.

Moved yesterday, so was without internet for most of the day.

More bad PMI news out of China.

The bigger news is the rally and the follow through. Asia continued the rally overnight, and Europe is green thus far, although the DAX just turned negative and JPY strengthened.

Such fading could end up as bad news if certain levels are not reclaimed.

AUD & CAD are bid, adding to the general Risk On tone. USD down fractionally while EUR down.

Again, a strengthening JPY is a warning.

These seem to have gathered themselves for a run at least to their August swing points.

WTI crude well bid but still range bound. NG flat and stuck in range.

Gold & silver down slightly as copper rallies a bit after holding its most recent lows.

S&P Outlook:
Finally began to watch the Carl Icahn video which I was thinking was his Bill Ackman/Herbalife moment, and it appears it is. Also, his TIME magazine "Master of the Universe" cover is prominently shown.

Overall the video feels more like a campaign video rather than an outright market call.

Yet if ever there was a time when social mood could turn on a public figure, it could probably be quite soon for Icahn. Could he get wrongfooted by a market reboot that is not a crash? Possible.

His Master of the Universe cover is problematic for his star trajectory at this time. And the big splash that his well-financed video has made could end up dousing him.

Near-term, if for any reason the S&P gets above 1952.89 without further lows, the market could be sending a huge signal that we're in a simple correction.

Sure there could be some not-so-simple declines before it was over, but the impulsive 'crash" quality would likely be lessened.

If, however, 1952.89 holds, there could be another leg down that would complete another five-wave sequence. And that leg could morph into something worse, making Icahn look spot on.

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