The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Tuesday -- Back To The 2006 Top With Blackstone

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down but off their worst levels.

News:
2006 -- Tishman Speyer Properties and Blackrock buy Stuyvesant Town -- the largest apartment complex in Manhattan -- for $5.4 billion. Reportedly "the most expensive real estate deal of its kind in American history," and basially marking the real estate top.

2010 -- Tishman Speyer Properties and Blackrock default on the deal and turn over the properties to creditors.

2015 -- Blackstone Group (initially & incorrectly written as Blackrock) is close to a deal to buy Stuyvesant Town -- again -- for $5.3 billion.

Fascinating news if you're a fan of social mood and market psychology.

FX:
JPY and CHF in play today. Yen crosses are seeing action with yen broadly weaker. Notable CHF strength is the possible red flag.

Treasuries:
More weak pullback.

Energy:
WTI crude listless. NG still above multi-year lows.

Metals:
Gold & silver slightly higher with copper flat to slightly lower.

S&P Outlook:
Two days in a row the 2035.73 gap has not been filled despite being just 1.28 points away at one point. Weak and a reminder of the rough time it had at 2020.86.

Such weak action continues to bolster the B-wave scenario. It also means a pullback could come at any time. Perhaps we could even the deeper retracement that was expected but never materialized.

If so, 1970-1980 and 1940-1960 are simple zones to watch for. More precise targets can be made later based on wave progression.

However, today being the .618% time progression target of the move from the May high to the August low, a slight new rally high is possible first, especially since the overnight move in futures thus far looks corrective.


TVIX continues to implode, and I continue to accumulate.

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