The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Tuesday -- Back To The 2006 Top With Blackstone

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down but off their worst levels.

2006 -- Tishman Speyer Properties and Blackrock buy Stuyvesant Town -- the largest apartment complex in Manhattan -- for $5.4 billion. Reportedly "the most expensive real estate deal of its kind in American history," and basially marking the real estate top.

2010 -- Tishman Speyer Properties and Blackrock default on the deal and turn over the properties to creditors.

2015 -- Blackstone Group (initially & incorrectly written as Blackrock) is close to a deal to buy Stuyvesant Town -- again -- for $5.3 billion.

Fascinating news if you're a fan of social mood and market psychology.

JPY and CHF in play today. Yen crosses are seeing action with yen broadly weaker. Notable CHF strength is the possible red flag.

More weak pullback.

WTI crude listless. NG still above multi-year lows.

Gold & silver slightly higher with copper flat to slightly lower.

S&P Outlook:
Two days in a row the 2035.73 gap has not been filled despite being just 1.28 points away at one point. Weak and a reminder of the rough time it had at 2020.86.

Such weak action continues to bolster the B-wave scenario. It also means a pullback could come at any time. Perhaps we could even the deeper retracement that was expected but never materialized.

If so, 1970-1980 and 1940-1960 are simple zones to watch for. More precise targets can be made later based on wave progression.

However, today being the .618% time progression target of the move from the May high to the August low, a slight new rally high is possible first, especially since the overnight move in futures thus far looks corrective.

TVIX continues to implode, and I continue to accumulate.

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