The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Wednesday -- Rocked, Stoned & Punked

S&P E-mini Futures:
Higher in continuation of late yesterday's set up.

Ewww, I got punked yesterday...twice. First I mistakenly wrote Blackrock instead of Blackstone yesterday while discussing the Stuyvesant Town real estate deal (which has since been identified as corrected).

Then I tried a long hedge against TVIX and failed, publicly too, calling the trades and stops on Stocktwits/Twitter. But hey, I stuck to the stops.

As a small consolation, futures are higher this morning.

The Race to the Top is on as Ferrari (ticker symbol: RACE) priced at the top end of the IPO range at $52 per share after offering them for $48-$52.

Bloomberg reported "Brazil Impeachment Papers About to Drop as Crisis Hits New Stage."

Good. I'm long Petrobras and seeing a small 5-waves up in it from its lowest lows, along with VALE and ITUB has me thinking that investors seem to like the chances of ousting President Dilma Rousseff.

Elsewhere, isn't it a little early for Santa? Not for some.

AUD, MXN, and NOK notably weaker.

Looking a bit better than yesterday.

WTI crude and NG down over 1%. NG threatening multi-year lows.

Gold flat with silver and copper down.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday got above the gap and closed below it on meek volume, kinda bearish. Yet the intraday decline was very sloppy and sucked me in long to hedge TVIX. As mentioned above I was stopped out only to see futures higher this morning.

The point is I felt like I was guessing with the S&P cash while e-minis were providing clearer waves (which suggested corrective action). This happens from time to time, and will happen again.

The market has reacted a bit at the .618% time target, but not yet enough. However, if futures can't extend, they are in danger of putting cash in position for a double top vs yesterday.

The 200dma may be exerting some influence and attraction at the 2059 area. Otherwise, still interested in the 1970-1980 and 1940-1960 zones.

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