The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Tuesday -- Never Say Never

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down slightly, but looks more like hanging at multi-day highs.

Lotsa news out today...

8:30am: Durable Goods Orders
9:00am: S&P/Case-Shiller
9:45am: Markit U.S. Composite PMI & U.S. Services PMI
10:00am: Consumer Confidence Index
10:00am: Richmond Fed Mfg Index

Start of two-day Fed meeting today with decision 2:00pm Wednesday.

Asia was mixed to down last night, and Europe is red.

JPY remains an excellent leading indicator. It is stronger yet again today and seems to be making traders jittery.

NOK getting hammered again on weak oil prices. The malaise seems to be spreading to Sweden where household credit is up 7.3% year over year as consumers turn to credit cards for spending.

Middle of range with no apparent conviction higher or lower.

WTI crude and NG slammed once more. NG sub-$2.00.

Gold and silver down, copper up.

S&P Outlook:
If the alternate wave count shown yesterday -- the Wave 3 -- is correct, anything below 2055.20 would be a warning shot. below 2033.54 would be a more forceful warning shot, and below 2017.22 would likely be fatal to the count.

So far, the 78.6% has held. But the decline from it, if one can call it that, has been choppy and shallow thus far. Volume contracted as well, which supports higher prices.

As noted many moons ago during the heat of the August collapse, there are gaps as high as 2119.21 to be aware of. Testing them would not jeopardize the B-wave scenario one bit. Nor would a deeper, choppy pullback below 2000.

Sideways trade could occur until tomorrow at 2pm when the Fed decision comes out. They've got everyone believing there's no way they'll raise. Never say never.

No comments:

Post a Comment