The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Wednesday -- Fed Day

S&P E-mini Futures:
Still hanging at highs.

Fed Day in the USA. If ever there was a time for a rug pull, it's today. No one expects an increase in rates. And the Fed needs to re-establish whatever cred it had. A rate rise would be a heck of a good way.

Elsewhere, Erica Blomgren was on fire this morning on Twitter with all sorts of data and color out of Sweden and Norway.

Poor Norway is a mess due to the collapse in oil prices coupled with poor investment choices in their massive sovereign wealth fund -- sadly, predicted right here almost five years ago . . .

Sweden's Riksbank extended its QE for a forth time and held interest rates at -0.35%, while Norway's SWF posted its biggest loss in four years "just as the government prepares to make its first ever withdrawals to plug budget deficits," per Zero Hedge.

Here's how Reuters softly positioned it.

As long as a central bank somewhere is doing QE, the narrative is that it's "ok." It's not.

Meanwhile Asia had a bad night with Shanghai down almost 2%. Europe is all green however.

Perhaps Europe is green when it should be a bit more concerned about deflation. ECB's executive board member Benoit Coeure said the ECB "may need to take additional measures" to help boost prices with inflation failing to rebound as fast as policy makers expected.

When it comes to deflation, however, there aren't any additional measures, because the measures to date -- too much debt -- have caused the problem, and QE merely compounds the problem.

From a social mood viewpoint, this headline caught my eye.

Apparently "new research shows that working through college isn't going to make a dent in student debt and could ruin your GPA."

Bloomberg seems to be suggesting that young people just give up.

AUD & NOK notably weaker today. CHF stronger on possible safe haven flows.

Charts of 2s-30s are a mess. Confusion reigns, and rightly so.

WTI crude trying to bounce, yet NG bouncing like crazy (but so far failing to hold).

Gold and silver bid, while copper not.

S&P Outlook:
Continuing to see higher prices unless 2055.20 fails. Then the door would be open to 2017.22.

So basically today could be the day when we learn if the market is in the assumed B-wave, or a still-developing impulse to new all-time highs.

2017.22 seems to be the key.

Below that would not necessarily mean the rally was over. In fact, if it's a B-wave, it could possibly be a final funky decline before the final funky high. Then a C-wave lower might kick in, and the target could be below 1867.01.

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