The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, December 11, 2015

Friday -- Crude, Obtusity, New Moon, Longs

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down hard overnight.

Crude oil is down again and it's flipping people out; S&P futures are following the slide almost tick for tick. Europe is down hard after Asia had a rough night.

Meanwhile, another helpful oil headline from after yesterday's close. No such headlines at the top in June, 2014.

From Reuters this morning:

U.S. consumer spending gauge rises strongly in November

Maybe another reason why markets are red. More strong data for the Fed to say "go."

Fully obtuse headline alert:

U.S. producer prices rose 0.3% in November, biggest gain since June

Gain comes from services, good prices decline

So basically prices rose on falling prices.

Commodity currencies AUD & CAD caught in oil's crossfire.

Prices continue to rise on muted volume.

WTI crude down hard on concerns over increased supply and increased production. There's a lot of oil out there. Yet it's still looking like a huge wedge at current lows that could turn out to be bullish.

NG still seems to point toward new lows.

Copper swinging higher, yet Gold and silver hit.

S&P Outlook:
Today is the new moon, so it would not surprise me to see a low made.

I bought some more SSO in the pre-market against the TVIX position I have.

Yesterday was a complete failure of the market to capitalize on strength. It bumped up against a volume shelf and then rolled over.

Doing so created a possible 1:1 Fib extension target at 2007.18, yet the way oil and the S&P is wedging down without a clear impulse -- for now -- could set things up for a shallower probe to the 2034 area, the lower rail of the wedge.

If not, and especially if 2019.39 breaks, 2007.18 remains valid, but ideally, the 2000 area is the zone of interest for me down there.

With TVIX expanding rapidly, it gives me cover to add longs lower in pre-planned tranches.

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