The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Thursday -- Anger, Trump, And What It Means For The Market

S&P E-mini Futures:
Bouncing small... but bouncing.

I never comment on politics or religion (or sex -- the three no-no's of polite conversation), but Trump continues to mystify pundits and pollsters who fail to realize he's tapping into an undercurrent of anger.

I mention this because it's a social mood indicator. With stock indexes -- the best barometer of social mood -- close to all-time highs, where is the anger coming from?

It's coming from the Fed's smoke and mirrors.

Without the Fed, the market hasn't partied 
since 1999

People don't have to know the ins and outs of the stock market or fractional reserve banking or ZIRP or QE or Operation Twist to know when they're being screwed.

When it comes to social mood, anger knows no bounds. The more it builds, the more people desire to find targets to express their anger.

Religion is only one such way.

Trump is proving to be an expert at tapping into it.

The higher Trump's poll numbers go, the more bearish the implications are for the markets. 

CHF weaker after SNB reaffirms intention to intervene. USD may be forming a wedge. Lower could still occur, but already hinting toward corrective action.

Levitating higher on lighter volume and may want to test their November swing points above. Not thinking much else currently. Still regarding these as bearish, and pressure still remains on the short end.

WTI crude new lows overnight. Looks like it's forming a wedge (along with USD), so choppy action could continue, lower lows could occur, but for now still thinking a larger upside trade is due.

NG waiting for EIA inventory numbers today. Still viewing the action as corrective before new lows.

Gold, silver, and copper hovering around negative to flat.

S&P Outlook:
I continue to remain constructive on the market, but yesterday's break of  2042.35 could open the door to 2000.

I doubt it will get there in the near term, however, due to the wave count which still arguably lacks an impulsive structure.

Therefore some other corrective structure such as a triangle could developing as long as 2019.39 holds. If not, 2000 likely, and maybe lower.

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