The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, December 28, 2015

Monday -- Japan's Lump Of Coal, Dividends & Buybacks, Door #3

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down after testing (and seeming to fail) trendline resistance last Thursday.

News:
While much of the world was still celebrating the holidays, Bloomberg quietly reported that Japan's Industrial Output Dropped For the First Time in Three Months.

Certainly a lump of coal for Abe & Co. And a rather big deal after undertaking one of the largest stimulus efforts the planet has ever seen.

Social Media is progressively turning anti-social, a trend was forecasted by Elliottwave International (home of the Socionomics Institute) several years ago.


Elsewhere, there could be trouble brewing in Bank Balance Sheet Land, something the FT has noticed and now has gotten ink from Asia's CSLA brokerage and confirmed by Federal Reserve Data.


The fact that it was Zero Hedge that most recently shed light on the subject will likely irk many, but that is no reason to ignore it.

Zero Hedge is just a place for information like any other. What you do with it is up to you.

If banks are getting nervous about all that money they've lent that got used for buybacks and dividends, and if banks now want more collateral against it, buybacks and dividends will suffer.

Potentially less impetus to hit the Buy button on equities.

Moving forward, the issue is whether C&I loans will fall even further, or whether they'll rebound.

For now, the yield curve may be the best thing to monitor. It's pointing the wrong way, but anything can happen and probably will.

FX:
Benign day in FX so far. CAD weak.

Treasuries:
As referenced above, still trending toward inversion.

Energy:
WTI crude correcting recent gains. NG looking rather swell.

Metals:
Gold, silver, and copper. . . trifecta faceplant, with silver the worst.

S&P Outlook:


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