The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Tuesday -- Putin, Crude, New Year's Resolutions, Chess

S&P E-mini Futures:
Thrusting above the weekly pivot, per @chitownfutures.

News:
Last post of 2015.

This will likely be a slow week volume-wise, but could be important technically.

News-wise, for all his strong outward appearance, Putin's economy is not doing so well. Not only is the ruble back to the crisis lows and looking like it wants to weaken a lot further, the oil rout may be turning the screws tighter. This may or may not have geopolitical risks soon.


Meanwhile, markets cheer around the world. Even oil, which could ironically become Putin's savior.

FX:
GBP getting hit. Commodity currencies AUD & CAD stronger even in the face of a stronger USD. Noted.

Treasuries:
The trend toward inversion slightly accelerated the last few days. No one cares.

Energy:
WTI crude and NG having another great day.

Metals:
Gold, silver, and copper all green. Copper the relative strength leader.

S&P Outlook:
Today the market is breaking above a key resistance trendline. Closing above it and surviving a successful backtest would immediately call into question lower prices and put the focus on new highs.

Just how powerful those new highs might be is the question. With the market rallying on low volume, overtly bullish scenarios may have a slight problem. Yet marginal new highs could easily occur then get sold.

In other words, Door #3 may be closing fast, but here is how it might fit into a new one which I'll call Door #4. Be careful of the market's New Year's resolutions.

Bigger picture, even if the market sold off after a marginal new high, "C" would probably represent a killer buy. Just depends how much chess you like to play.







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