The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Tuesday -- Frontrunning Pessimism

S&P E-mini Futures:
Ripping higher on follow through from yesterday's reversal.

Is the Hilsenrath "Fed leak" regarding another possible non rate hike making the rounds? Who knows. Today feels a bit like frontrunning.

Asia had a rough night, but Europe is sky high.

Liking the current sentiment too.

Or else what? Or else it won't fit into some neatly packaged narrative of a Santa Claus rally?

The market, like the universe, is indifferent. The toughest thing as a trader is aligning with that.

As someone who views the current juncture as part of a larger market reboot, I also loved seeing this article today. Pessimism yields its opposite, just as euphoria does.

Maybe that's what traders were reacting to. . . yesterday.

Quiet. USD hanging tough.

Crashing back to earth as probability of a hike rises to 80%. Nothing is ever certain, however.

WTI crude bouncing. NG falling.

Gold and copper down, silver up.

S&P Outlook:
Currently using the chart of crude to formulate a thesis for the S&P. Both are highly correlated lately (which can disappear in a flash).

But if crude is indeed leading, both may be close to huge rallies.

The market liked the 1996 call better than the 2007.18 Fib, reaching -- and rejecting -- 1993.26 yesterday.

If the S&P is forming a wedge like crude, today's bounce could be a small confirmation of it. Therefore 2042.35 could be in the crosshairs.

A more aggressive target might the 2052.23 gap which is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level, and more importantly, both the 50 and 200dma in the 2060 area.

No comments:

Post a Comment