The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Tuesday -- Hey Man: Hayman On Oil, Fed On Minutes, VIX on The Nose

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down but not out.

Another down night in Asia followed by a much better day in Europe thus far -- what looked worse overnight has turned a bit better for the e-minis so far. Still not likely out of the woods though.

Much-anticipated December Fed minutes get released tomorrow at 2pm NY time.

Not seeing much else out there of note but for this great interview with Kyle Bass. I agree with his oil thesis, and have been starting to position for it slowly.

I still like to think that Hayman Capital stands for Hey Man.

Warning sign -- USD ripping higher and JPY stronger.

Perked up yesterday. Today needs follow through.

WTI crude still probably looking for another low. NG consolidating recent gains, down over 3%.

Gold, silver, and copper hat trick higher.

S&P Outlook:
Most notable to me is that the VIX perfectly held its upper 2 standard deviation band yesterday. So while it may have looked like a scary decline, VIX didn't overreact.

Nor did TRIN, which was fast asleep.

These two things could mean there was no fear, therefore complacency. Or perhaps, the market was merely putting in the first leg of the final move of its corrective pattern and there is still plenty of time for a bit of fear to show up.

Since mid-December as the market has made lower lows, junk and corporate high yield have not.

Regardless, even though the above may constitute a buy signal at some point, JPY hints at lower equity prices unless its close correlation with the S&P unravels. But still supports a long thesis.

Thinking the 1960-1970 area may be the final stop after a bounce. If not, the August lows could become the target rather quickly.

No comments:

Post a Comment