The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Tuesday -- Recovery Amid Gloom

S&P E-mini Futures:
Overnight recovery in the face of China's rout.

News:
China down over 6%, yet WTI crude and S&P futures recovered their declines.

Tone is still, well, gloomy.


And "reset" continues to work its way into the market.
What if we just had one?
Again, this is fine to see from a social mood perspective, but I'd still love to see "reset" appear in the non-financial press (like TIME or Newsweek), and of course I'd love to see the word "reboot" used as well, purely for selfish reasons: to validate the September Vogue 2014 & 2015 signals.

Meanwhile, Europe is mixed after China's trashing, probably a sign of stability.

FX:
More of a Risk On tone today versus yesterday's cautionary one.

Treasuries:
Still consolidating recent gains with light volume.

Energy:
WTI crude recovering. NG up over 1%.

Metals:
Another bid for metals. Gold, silver, and copper up.

S&P Outlook:
Futures did get below the 1876 area noted yesterday, but as long as 1836.25 holds (which roughly equates to the 1859.86 cash level cited yesterday) the market should remain constructive.

Thus far, the rally feels a bit tepid and anxious, and it probably wouldn't take much to rattle some nerves again. Yet it still feels they could be rattled just as much by higher prices. Perhaps volatility will continue as the only constant.

This chart is a few days old, but I still like it.

In other words, as long as 1859.86 holds, I want to be long.


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