The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Wednesday -- The Toss Up

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down, but recovering from shallow pullback overnight.

Fed Day. Tone is still bearish.

Global stocks, dollar struggle ahead of Fed as oil falters

Japan-style malaise

Actually, Asia had an OK night, and Europe is only slightly down to mixed. Boeing and Apple gave weak guidance. Boeing beat earnings, Apple missed.

Yet, hiding in plain sight is accidental subtext (unintended, subconscious communication).

Maybe everything that dies someday comes back

Cue the Fed.

Modest Risk On. AUD ripping. USD down (exposed all the way down to 93-94 area, at least, but still in a longer term bullish pattern).

Same as yesterday. "Still consolidating recent gains with light volume."

WTI crude down but firm enough. NG looks firm too.

Gold and silver in shallow consolidations. Copper up.

S&P Outlook:
The S&P looks like it's expecting good news from the Fed, yet still has not managed to get above its 61.8% Fib expansion, nor its 38% retracement level.

Pattern wise, it's a toss up. Senseless to guess, especially before a rudderless Fed at 2pm which is clearly capable of anything.

The pattern seems to need a new high. Without one, below 1859.86 might not be good.

Huge volume shelf at 1898-1903, above which could be near-term bullish.

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