The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Tuesday -- Social Mood & Why "It" May be Saying Buy Soon

S&P E-mini Futures:
Ripping higher.

Sentiment and market tone, with the exception of today's bounce, remains exceedingly dark.

Even the "reason" for today's bounce -- bad Chinese data -- is so dark it's good, meaning "more stimulus."

And BOJ's Kuroda uttered the words "whatever it takes."

AAII sentiment data shows fewer bulls than 2008, and is at low levels not seen since 1988.

Social mood continues to suggest a possible buying opportunity.

Assorted headlines of late with emphasis added:

No Calm in Sight as Volatility Surges

Biggest Banks Rue Millions Lost on Trader Who Failed Before

Davos Boss Warns Refugee Crisis Could Be Precursor to Something Much Bigger

Five Charts Show How Bad the Emerging-Market Stock Rout Really Is

China Prepares for Worst After Tsai Victory Upends Taiwan Plans

Oil Speculators Raise Bets on Falling Prices to All-Time High

What could intensify the stock carnage: earnings

Europe's 'last chance'

The Case for Chaos in Trying to Pick Bottom of U.S. Equity Rout

China's growth hits quarter-century low

French President Declares State of Economic Emergency

Oh, and "it" may be starting.

"It" meaning evidence of the word REBOOT or RESET making it into the mainstream press to describe the market, as forecast by The Socionomic Implications Of September Vogue: 2014 and The Socionomic Implications Of September Vogue: N° 5.

These headlines occurred at both the FT and Bloomberg respectively:

Admittedly, I'd like to see a few more of these. Such an occurrence could suggest a possible wave 4 buying opportunity -- arising from "Surprising Disappointment" in Elliott parlance -- before a final manic 5th wave rally.

USD up, commodity currencies up, JPY weaker (Risk On).

Digesting recent gains.

WTI crude shaky and NG bounce mode.

Gold not yet getting the love that silver and copper are today. Silver's gyrations are nuts lately.

S&P Outlook:
Friday the S&P got below the August 1867.01 low and closed above it on lighter volume, a classic Richard D. Wyckoff buy signal (from the early 1900s), so today's bounce should not surprise.

Yet only above 1900 (and especially closing the gap at 1921.84) would suggest an important low. So far it appears like a bounce.

It could, however, be "a" of an "abc" within a larger ABC to complete wave 4. If so, I'm allowing for a test of 1750 as shown Friday. Also, "b" could travel higher than shown.

Or it could be the final C of the ABC of wave 4.

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