The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Wednesday -- Pure Fear, Social Mood & The S&P

S&P E-mini Futures:

Fear is back. Pure fear.

From Bloomberg:

“It’s back to oil and that’s what is driving everything,” said Barra Sheridan, a rates trader at Bank of Montreal in London. “We can easily run more because it’s pure fear. I don’t know what we need to change this sentiment.”

Forgot to post these yesterday. A couple days old now, but the point is still the same: mood is dark.

Today at Marketwatch --

Maybe, if you live in the Northeast

Psychology runs the market.

Journalists broadcast prevailing psychology.

Prevailing psychology -- social mood -- is exceedingly negative at the same time that market internals are showing selling exhaustion.

In Elliott wave terms, it continues to fit best with the "surprising disappointment" of a wave 4 correction.

Much different day from yesterday. AUD & CAD weaker (which, according to Zero Hedge, has fallen every day this year). CHF and JPY stronger. Risk Off.

Doing what they should be doing: ripping higher with a steepening bias.

We're told today's global market pummeling is all about WTI crude's latest decline, whereas both term structure and rate of descent say "careful with that."

Gold bid, silver flat currently, copper down.

S&P Outlook:
There is a 200% Fib extension target at 1838.18 which could come into play today.

I continue to like the simplicity of the weekly chart which has the 50 week moving average at 2052 and the 200 week moving average at 1782 and expect a lot of large players, commercials, and institutional trading desks to view the same range.

Therefore I stick with this chart. I still think "b" could reach a lot higher than shown, and I think "c" of C of 4 could extend lower too.

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