The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Wednesday -- Relief Or Rolaids

S&P E-mini Futures:
Holding gains overnight, higher.

Stuff I like to see near lows:

"S&P could plunge 75% to 550, argues SocGen’s Albert Edwards"

Stuff I don't like to see during rallies:

"GM Increases 2016 Profit Forecast, Boosts Buyback by $4 Billion"

"When you should jump back into stocks this year"

"Trade Surprise Brings Relief"

Relief is the worst. Never a fan of relief rallies.

Once again, when it's all about relief from China (or whatever), it's about being saved from something "out there" rather than by internal strength.

In markets as in life, it rarely lasts.

Interestingly, Asia had a great night, and so has Europe thus far. Yet China got knocked for another 2% on its favorable trade surplus data.

FX still suggests Risk On -- JPY weaker, AUD & CAD hinting at commodity strength, CHF weaker.

Yet USD is stronger too.

Maybe the USD is watching treasuries, which appear to need yet another rest today.

Stuff I like to see near lows:

Meanwhile, both WTI crude and NG are seeing bids and seeing lower open interest which could suggest a drying up of sellers.

Gold slightly lower, with silver and copper bid higher.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday's rally closed on inverted A/Ds but higher volume. Not great, but definitely not doomsday.

Plenty of higher spots to test, along with a small volume shelf that could be the perfect spot below for one last flipout (1883-1887).

The higher areas will likely settle whether we're in a triangle formation or not.

Once again, 1960 remains crucial to close above. Only then would the more juicy 2000 area -- and especially the 2022-2050 area -- come into view.

If these higher levels are probed, the triangle (or other bullish configuration) is probably real. The bearish impulse down scenario would once again be under severe pressure.

No comments:

Post a Comment