The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, February 26, 2016

Friday -- Fewer Bulls But Animal Spirits Lurk

S&P E-mini Futures:
Higher on solid follow through of yesterday's rally.

Even though Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said don't expect any stimulus surprises from the G-20 meeting, hope is in the air. Along with Window Dressing, we have a fine recipe for testing higher levels. Asia and Europe ripped thus far.

Also, AAII data shows fewer bulls than March 2003 and even March 2009, so potential exists for a large scale wrong-footing at some point.

This dovetails perfectly with the "surprising disappointment" of a fourth-wave pullback, and the socionomics behind it.

Yet, animal spirits still lurk below the surface. And when it comes to social mood, fashion tends to lead. Furry nails are all the rage suddenly.

To go with the furry iPhone case, of course.

By the way, very kind of Stocktwits to mention this work yesterday. My humble thanks to them.

Since 2/11, the day of the "grim" and "ugly" headlines, futures have rallied over 160 points, and over 1,000 Dow points.

Mild Risk On, but commodity currencies slightly weak.

Remaining in digestion mode.

WTI crude sharp bounce when and where it needed to. NG drifting lower.

Gold and silver weaker. Platinum, palladium, and copper higher.

S&P Outlook:
Here is what I was thinking intraday yesterday. This scenario could survive until a strong close above 1983.58.

If not, 2000 "round number resistance" and the 50wma at 2036 could be targets.

If internals continue to fizzle, however, as they did slightly yesterday, this chart could come into play. Keep it in mind. Remember it?

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