The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Thursday -- G-20, EVs, Oil, S&P Channels

S&P E-mini Futures:
Floating higher after three-wave correction overnight.

China trimmed over 6% last night, but Europe is a Sea of Green amid G-20 festivities.

More friendly advice from Marketwatch:

Bloomberg with the latest narrative:

News for Bloomberg: if oil stays "lower for longer" no one's going near EVs. Governments may salivate over the prospect of unlimited tracking of driver-less cars, but a  "widespread adoption of EVs" is basically a forecast for $200+ oil.

Slight Risk On tone thus far.

Prices firming, possibly gathering strength for another assault of highs.

Virtually no one is thinking $200 oil at the moment, but if WTI crude can hold above 28.70 it may at least take on a more impulsive feel.

NG down another 2% but volume drying up fast. Thinking speculative calls on each.

No breakout yet from the building triangle in gold. Down along with silver and platinum. Palladium and copper flat.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday's reversal was welcome, especially after price knocked out one of the wave scenarios right at the open before I pressed "publish."

From a wave standpoint, price is now in a rather ambiguous spot, however.

Nothing stopping it from further backing and filling into the 61.8% level in the 1860s (note also the gap at 1864.78).

Nothing stopping it from heading higher, either. So here's another way to look at things if it does:

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