The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, February 5, 2016

Friday -- NFP Vs The Fed

S&P E-mini Futures:
Messy overnight range with down bias after NFP. Could go either way.

NFP numbers were called "unambiguously good" and "about as good as it gets" by economist Mark Zandi on CNBC.

If this is the average assessment, the Fed may have a problem.

So could equities.

Also, seeing research chatter being passed around hyping the potential for debt monetization by the BOJ. Makes great reading, and is surely something that would make a central banker salivate along with the economists who love them, but the problem with theories like this is they regard the market as a system of levers and pulleys and completely disregard the reactions of market psychology.

Elsewhere, Oilmeggedon is now a word...

I remain constructive on oil. Production is being obliterated by falling rig counts and outright cuts as demand holds steady to slightly higher. Doing some DD and T/A on refiners: Marathon, Tesoro, Valero, and Phillips 66.

A much different day in Fxland. AUD & CAD weaker, JPY & CHF weaker.

USD slightly higher, having closed at almost an exact 1:1 Fib extension from its recent high -- corrective thus far.

Meanwhile, the dollar "toast man" is still at it. Wild scenarios of new epic bull markets in hard assets and the destruction of the dollar. Been shadowing this guy since 2004. Never one word about debt overhang.

Hanging at highs.

WTI crude stalling. Needs to rip higher to escape the possibility of lower lows.

NG rallying where it needs to.

Gold, silver, and copper stalling as well. Gold needs a close above 1191.70 to change my view.

S&P Outlook:
Currently too middle-of-the-page for me to find an edge.

Chart of futures looks a little more ominous than the cash chart.

TRIN closer to overbought than oversold.

Would rather reconsider above 1950 or below 1875.

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