The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, February 8, 2016

Monday -- Advertising, Architecture, ABCs & Pixies

S&P E-mini Futures:
Futures down hard again but still looking choppy.

China is closed all week for the lunar new year. Welcome to the year of the Monkey.

Europe is down hard as its banking structure comes under considerable stress, yet from a credit perspective, nowhere near the worst levels of 2010.

As for the US markets, advertising is a great leading indicator because it's pretty much the first thing to get cut when times get rough.

Yet on the heels of a banner Super Bowl ad performance, another reason why I still don't think we're there yet.

"Omnicom Group and Interpublic Group of Cos., the largest U.S. advertising firms by market value, have risen 4.1% and 13% respectively since June 30. That they've outperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's 7.8% decline should provide a measure of assurance given how they fared the last time a recession was at hand.

"Remember 2007? By the time the S&P 500 was topping out in October of that year, shares of Omnicom and Interpublic had already been falling for half a year -- and they hit bottom in 2008 four months before the benchmark gauge."

In other words, advertising is showing positive divergence versus the market decline, and still suggests we're feeling the "surprising disappointment" of an Elliott fourth-wave correction.

It's not just advertising. It's architecture, too.

Ordinarily, a student of social mood would view this as a topping signal, and it is, or will be soon, but the article ended with a gem of accidental subtext (unintended subconscious communication): "...up is really the only place left to go."

Fifth-wave mania, anyone?

JPY is stronger today, but is the only real indication of potential Risk Off bias thus far.

Speaking of mania, look at the price moves in treasuries since the beginning of the year. Straight line moves. Equities could soon take their cue from such behavior.

WTI crude still seems to suggest lower lows in order. NG ripping after finding its legs where it should.

Gold is in striking distance of 1191.70 and a potential trend change. Silver is about halfway there, and copper doesn't look too sure.

S&P Outlook:
Posted this slop fest a few days ago. With a 1:1 Fibonacci extension target at the 1850 area, it may be time to clean it up.

A complex ABC is possible.

Within a larger complex pattern . . .

Within the larger context of a reboot (first shown in The Socionomic Implications Of September Vogue: N° 5) . . .

If a complex ABC is not in the cards, 1812.29 could break soon.

What treat to find this video of a full-length concert of the Pixies at the Paradise in Boston.

Truly one of the few bands that got even better with age.

Joey Santiago still playing his Gibson Les Paul gold top and showing why he remains one of the best kept secrets among guitarists around the world.

Where did Kurt Cobain get his "genius" from? He owed it all to these guys.

Oh, and guess who lived in Puerto Rico and fell in love with it, too. Big ol' sweaty Black Francis baby.

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