The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, February 1, 2016

Monday -- Bad Data, Anti-Cash, Abandoned Mines, Corrective Patterns

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down in choppy trade, correcting Friday's highs.

News:
More bad data out of China keeps the stimulus narrative alive in the financial press, yet it's not yet translating to global equities.

Reuters -- "Chinese manufacturing slowed last month at its fastest pace in more than three years."

Meanwhile, Bloomberg's editorial team is jumping on the anti-cash bandwagon, which makes me want to puke.


Governments, largely run by Keynesians, are getting increasingly desperate. (This may be a glimpse of Michael Bloomberg's platform should he decide to throw his hat in the presidential ring.)

As such, in between this weekend's leisure pursuits (bitchin Sunday bar hopping through the countryside with some friends), spent some time reviewing USGS survey data on abandoned mines here in Puerto Rico (there are hundreds of them) that might make potential repositories for secure private vaults outside the banking system.

Much rather reach for opportunity than react to crisis.

FX:
AUD & CAD weaker, CHF stronger (Risk Off bias). JPY flat to slightly stronger. USD weaker.

Treasuries:
Showing signs of needing consolidation, at the least.

Energy:
WTI crude currently down over 4% from recent rally highs. NG down over 6%, but who leads whom? NG's chart remains a tad more bullish for now.

Metals:
Gold and silver doubting the cashless society, at least for the moment, up. Copper down, possibly on China issues.

S&P Outlook:
Friday the S&P bounced off a modest 1:1 Fib extension shown here last Wednesday.

Wednesday

Friday
Thus, the emphasis is now on 1872.70 as a must-hold level for bulls. Below there suggests new lows below 1812.29.

Higher targets at the 1978 and 2000 levels still exist, but Friday cautions as the pattern currently appears corrective rather than impulsive (bullish).

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