The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Tuesday -- Alphabet Schooled By Crude

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down again in choppy trade.

Google (Alphabet) reported great earnings results, but it seems crude oil is the bigger worry.

Heard a trader this morning flipping out about how Warren Buffett sold his entire Exxon position. Thing is, Buffett sold last September. And he put it all (and more) into Phillips 66.

The trader also quoted legendary energy investor John Arnold who said "half the U.S. energy industry will be bankrupt in 6 months."

Maybe. Or maybe sentiment is so bad it's good.

Oil's slide is hammering AUD, CAD, MXN, NOK, and RUB. JPY stronger. Risk Off set up for now.

Resuming higher after low volume pullbacks. A better sign given today's oil trubs.

WTI crude pummeled over 4% -- if below 29.47 could bring fresh lows. NG down over 5%.

One thing of note: oil's term structure blew apart a few days ago (bearish).

Gold, silver, and copper treading water lower.

S&P Outlook:
Here's how things looked at yesterday's close. Hmm. Futures down this morning. Hmmmm.

Higher prices could still occur, but moving up the stop for the S&P to 1872.70. Actually, 1920.30 could be a better, tighter one, but the pattern could still sub-divide higher.

How high? I like the 2000 area for market psychology reasons. If achieved, there is also ton of air from 2020-2050.

Otherwise, the S&P could get weird in sympathy with oil.

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