The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Thursday -- More Fed

S&P E-mini Futures:
Coming off their best overnight levels.

Things I like to see near lows:

I'm just betting that it does so after a new all-time high.

Things you just knew Bullard would say soon:

"I regard it as unwise to continue a normalization strategy in an environment of declining market-based inflation expectations,” Bullard said in a speech Wednesday in St. Louis.

(That would be Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, who loves to flap like a dove at lows.)

Meanwhile, odd action in global equity markets: China the notable exception to otherwise strong performance in Asia last night, while FTSE currently bucking the uptrend in play across Europe thus far.

AUD and USD seem to have not gotten the Bullard message. The big dollar is firm while the other dollar is weaker. And JPY is stronger.

More and more it seems that central bank jawboning is losing its mojo.

More Fed is starting to sound as comic as More Cowbell.

Still undergoing pullbacks on lighter volume.

WTI crude up 2%, and just negated a bearish wave pattern in doing so. NG moving 2% -- the other way.

Precious metals down across the board, while copper currently hugs the flatline.

S&P Outlook:
The rally has gotten to a tough spot. It closed just below the 38% Fib retracement (1927.14 -- not shown) which coincides with a broken trend channel that may now become resistance.

The rally did close above 1915.45, however. And 1947.20 may still be forthcoming. The depth and structure of any pullback will say a lot.

Bought a tranche of VIXY yesterday to add to other tranches of UVXY and TVIX which have a much better basis. Also have some SPY 188 puts which I will get long against with UPRO given the right opportunity.

Otherwise, very few people seem to believe this rally.

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