The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, February 19, 2016

Friday -- Options Expiration

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down slightly, choppy trade continues, although just legged sharply lower. Options expiry can cause weird moves.

More friendly advice that was nowhere to be found back in May 2015:

It gets better once you read it.

"A 30% slide for U.S. stocks in 2016 could be more likely than ever. Here’s why.

There are two diametrically opposing forces within the stock-market prediction world — those who believe in market fundamentals and those who follow market technicals, of which I am the latter.

My brother is a market fundamentalist. I am a market technician. And about this market we see eye-to-eye: Stocks have nowhere to go but down."


Mild Risk Off tilt. JPY a tad stronger. AUD & CAD weaker. GBP stronger while Cameron panders to the EU -- perhaps a signal that his pandering ain't working.

Why he gives a flip about the EU is beyond my ken. He should flip them off and let Britain be British.

Remaining choppy, digesting their huge moves from the New Year.

WTI crude printing odd wave structures amid odd volume signatures. Have been leaning long, but currently feels weird.

NG dribbles lower.

Strong bounce for gold off the 1200 level but on much lighter volume. Currently flat, along with silver, platinum, palladium, and copper.

S&P Outlook:
S&P can Fib all the way back to 1884.62 if it needs to (the 38% retracement). Yesterday's pullback was weak. Light volume and flat A/Ds. Not a good recipe if heavily short, but great for hedging.

Today's options expiration could push prices to even better levels for long exposure. Such levels could be the gap at 1864.78 and the 61.8% retracement at 1856.16.

Rather not play poker. More of a chess player.

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