The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, March 4, 2016

Friday -- Corruption, Bubbles, NFP

S&P E-mini Futures:
New highs overnight, nice spike post-NFP, but walking it back.

More stuff you tend to see at market bottoms: corruption scandals and extreme recession talk.


And because only academics can help us properly interpret the markets, Drudge Report ran this one:
Clicking through the link takes introduces us to Vikram Mansharamani, a lecturer at Yale University who said (with emphasis), "I mean, we've got a bubble bursting, I would argue, in Australian housing markets — that is beginning to crack; South Africa — the whole economy; Canada — housing and the economy; Brazil. We can keep going on and on," the academic told CNBC.

When you can go on and on, the trend is usually ripe.

And as this post was being written, CNBC's Michele Caruso-Cabrera stated Brazil was "almost in a depression." And former White House Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Austin Goolsbee said, "In Brazil, in China...We're really on the edge of meltdown in the developing world."

So it was pretty humorous to find this story today:

All this while waiting for the NFP number. 200,000 consensus. 242,000 reported. A little hot, but market liking it...until it didn't.

By the way, I'm bullish on Brazil.

USD firmer post-NFP and needs watching today.

Down slightly on NFP news.

Again, WTI crude needs to bust out or break down can happen. NG needs work higher and lower.

Gold new highs overnight, but coming off just a bit post-NFP. Silver, platinum, palladium, and copper up.

S&P Outlook:
Noticed this yesterday mid-day: a perfect Fibonacci 1:200% price-time match currently.

If the market chooses to disregard this Fibonacci time signature and keep heading higher, perhaps there is another esoteric reason in play...

This Tuesday there is a solar eclipse and a new moon. Perhaps the market could levitate until then for an epic Turnaround Tuesday.

The market feels firmly back into its old ways from 2009 -- up on weak internals, light volume, and choppy wave structure. In other words, back to "normal."

Futures spiked on the NFP news and are coming off, but I prefer to let the cash market tell the tale. Moving up the fail level to 1931.81.

The next level of Fibonacci confluence is at 2023.47-2027.60.

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