The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, March 7, 2016

Monday -- 1999.99

S&P E-Mini Futures:
Down but appearing so in a three-wave corrective structure.

The S&P closed Friday at 1999.99 after trading above 2000 for much of the day. Somehow seems rife with symbolism.

Meanwhile, the cautious anticipation is already building for the March 10 ECB meeting, which will be closely followed by the BOJ March 15, and the Fed on March 16. What will the central bankers do next. Oh joy.

Europe is down hard thus far.

Elsewhere, the "surprising disappointment" of the proposed fourth-wave correction in the equity markets may have claimed another victim:

Have art prices PEAKED? Auction houses report falling profits as the value of even Picassos tumble 

For a couple years now, it has seemed than art prices slightly lag the markets while fashion slightly leads the markets. Too little data thus far to prove it. But this news may be more of the same gloom that crept in when equities were at their lows... 1,500 Dow points ago.

Waiting for the new moon and solar eclipse tomorrow. Also the Bradley Turn Date Friday, March 11.

Mixed with no clear direction yet.

Hard to fathom the "end of the bond market" just yet.

Bloomberg reported that "demand is so great for benchmark 10-year Treasuries in the $1.6 trillion market for borrowing and lending U.S. government debt, and supply is so short, that traders are willing to pay to lend cash to get their hands on the issue.

"The overnight repurchase agreement rate on the newest 10-year note was negative 2.7 percent at the end of last week, the lowest for any Treasury note or bond, according to ICAP Plc data."

Nonetheless, prices are taking another breather thus far.

WTI crude managed a break out higher when it needed it, but still appears to need more follow through.

Tiny signs of life in NG.

Gold ripped to a new high on major volume Friday yet appears to be an inside day thus far. Silver still gunning for 15.99. Platinum and palladium rallies looking impulsive now. Copper may be on the way to becoming impulsive as well.

S&P Outlook:
The S&P correctly sharply from its 2009.13 high on Friday as if to say, Ok we got here, but that's enough for now.

However, not currently seeing anything in the futures to suggest anything other than a slight correction thus far.

The next level of Fibonacci confluence is at 2023.47-2027.60 and comprises an important 78.6% retracement (which the market beat handily last November), plus a 1:1 Fib extension, and trend line resistance.

Yet there is also an air pocket of light volume that was created when price cratered in Dec/Jan. That air pocket reaches to the 2052 area and could trigger another higher trend line (not shown).

Until then, this is what things look like in Fibland.

In Elliottland, the picture is muddled. A close below 1931.81 could clear it up, and would do so in a bearish way.

1999.99 might have sent a message. Maybe the market is not yet ready for prime time.

In other words, instead being in a fifth wave to new all-time highs, the market may need a more complex correction to lower lows before the "surprising disappointment" yields a climax.

Simply too soon to tell.

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