The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, April 22, 2016

Friday -- Cream And Froth

S&P E-mini Futures:
Choppy bounce after yesterday's sharp decline.

Google (Alphabet) missed. Microsoft missed. Starbucks missed.

Google's importance to me is as an advertising canary. And Starbucks is where people express their optimism about the future by purchasing $5 coffee. Both seem to be in decline. Both are a big deal.

Stocks were mixed in Asia last night, even with BOJ's Kuroda talking more smack about negative rates and using stimulating language. Europe looks just as messy thus far.

And it appears that our CEO was informed by the Board Of Directors to weigh in on the UK's Brexit debate, thereby pissing off the UK CEO and his associates. The real business of politics is all about not pissing off the Board Of Directors. The EU is their favorite pet project, and an important template for future board games, e.g., chess, Monopoly, etc.

Really sad to hear about Prince dying. Even worse to hear that drugs might have been involved.

Wednesday afternoon I was listening to a Prince song on the radio in the car from 1991 and kept saying "this guy's so ahead of his time!" The same thing happened the day Stevie Ray Vaughn died.

I have only one CD in my car. Bowie's Diamond Dogs.

Sad to say they're all so good they're immortal now.

Here it is. Here it was. Cream by Prince from 1991, still as fresh and new as the day he recorded it. RIP

The BOJ may consider helping Japanese bank lend by offering a negative rate on some loans (thereby helping to pick winners and losers like governments love to do). So unless people borrow, it won't work. So it's just more hopium.

Regardless, such news materially weakened JPY last night.

Meanwhile USD is on the move higher, and is making a mess out of the wave structure for bears.

Prices have now violated their March 17th swing points. Change may soon be afoot in the bond market after 30+ years of relative uptrend.

WTI crude remains in chop mode since its most recent high. NG as well.

Violent reversals in metals yesterday. Gold may want to retest the 1200 level. Silver and copper are currently higher, while platinum and palladium are currently lower.

S&P Outlook:
Here's how things looked & sounded the day before the S&P reached its latest rally high.

People pop off when they are 100% convinced of their view. And that is the best time to act oppositely.

I do still think this market hasn't seen the top. So I want to see a lot more of this when we get there. Until then, there are some cool spots at the 2080 and 2060 area. But I'm seeing another sloppy wave down thus far. So still feeling good about 2112.02 and up to the 2116.48 November swing point and possibly just a little higher.

Then the market would likely need to decide whether to run to new all-time highs, or whether a more complex correction is needed (down to 1750 or lower) to clear away the froth.

Maybe the market has already decided that at 2011.05 and is in the beginning stages of it. But I'm willing to try SPY calls down to 2033.80 as long as internals don't deteriorate much.

No comments:

Post a Comment