The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, April 25, 2016

Monday -- Red Worldwide, Nude In London

S&P E-mini Futures:
Quite messy and volatile over night. Sharp correction followed by sharp recovery.

Grim looking day thus far among global markets. Lots of red in Asia last night followed by Europe.

A big week is in store. FMOC meeting concludes on Wednesday followed by BOJ on Thursday.

Additionally, 33% of the S&P 500 reports earnings this week. Tech darlings Apple on Tuesday, The Facebook on Wednesday, and Amazon on Thursday should add drama.

As far as social mood goes, it still seems mixed.

Billboard's Hot 100 Charts tell a pragmatic, sober tale. The Top 10 includes:

#1 -- Work
#7 -- Work From Home

Doesn't sound very rock 'n' roll to me.

Meanwhile, over in London it's the opposite.

When mood is high, people tend to go out and reveal more skin. When mood is low people tend to stay in and cover up. Walls come down when mood is high. Walls go up when mood is down.

Evidently, mood is quite high in London.

Very slight Risk Off tone thus far with JPY and CHF strength.

Trying to rally after days of selling.

WTI crude and NG down over 1%. Crude's decline looks choppy, but NG's may have some teeth.

Gold trying to cheer up after Friday's decline. Silver higher in sympathy, but platinum, palladium, and copper lower.

S&P Outlook:
S&P almost got to the previously cited 2080 level Friday, reaching 2081.20 before bouncing. Futures had a rough go overnight, and world markets are under pressure.

I want to buy SPY puts on any bounce using 2011.05 as a stop. If a correction occurs, I want to be long SSO near 2070 but observing 2060.63 as a stop. Lower would negate this wave count and suggest even lower prices.

Much to the delight of Zero Hedge, Northy posted another weekend manifesto with a bearish tilt, using 25 charts only to say the bull case is unproven yet.

The weird thing is: several of his charts made me bullish rather than bearish.

From a longer-term perspective, we are still too middle-of-the-page for high-odds bets to either side. I can only say I don't feel a outright crash is coming, nor do I think a runaway bull market is starting.

A re-test of 1800 may feel like a crash to some, but to me it could be part of a larger pattern, one that could still have a perversely bullish outcome.

A breakout above 2134.72 may feel like a new bull market to some, but to me it could be part of a larger pattern, one that could still have a bearish outcome.

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